December 2011


View real estate. “According to the news media in November 29th,Vanke announced its “Vanke V purchase” Southern China online purchase center in online sales houses. At the appointed time,Vanke in Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Xiamen,Fuzhou,Changsha,Southern China city’s total of 1000000000 yuan of housing,will be online in the form of monopoly,the full implementation of network sales.According to the online propaganda,Vanke will in this network marketing to provide “100 million yuan of preferential”,also included a yuan Qipai,one year of free living and other preferential. The introduction of the housing are concentrated in the Southern China area. Including Shenzhen,Guangzhou,two focus city,and Xiamen,Fuzhou,Changsha,Sanya and other hot city. Guangdong Foshan region of Zhuhai,Huizhou,Zhongshan,Dongguan,have all in columns,involvingPropertyThere are 24.Specific projects include Changsha Vanke City,Xiamen County,Washington,Fuzhou golden banyan Huizhou Vanke City Washington,Sanya Forest Holiday park. Shenzhen participates in the EC projects in the water,the park,Vanke red 2 projects.Industry sources,the current business is only the real estate sales auxiliary means,also need to line under the tie,the most critical is the price. This personage says,from Vanke announced in October this year sales and new project the circumstance looks,October,Vanke sales area of 1004000 square meters,sell amount 10340000000 yuan,year-on-year drop respectively 23% and 33%,estimation of Vanke to act in such a way that promotion.

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Continue to “standard”,still recommended configuration latches and commercial real estate: this period,we continue to maintain a short for the industry “neutral” configuration view,reason,1) the policy surface situation more complex,short-term can relax: over a period of time,we see Chongqing,Chengdu,Hangzhou,Beijing and other places are introduced some real estate adjusting control policy,on the whole,have retain pressure,but did not touch the essence of the “restriction” “credit limit” problems,the central government level has not been clearly relaxed position,we judge,trend,relaxation will come,process must be first place on the then central starting point,may have to wait until the in the spring of next year or later,judge the policy basis or watchInvestmentData and economic decline,years ago policy loose tuning possibilities is also smaller,tone will be “stable”; 2) volume no improvement: near the end of the November,we observed the main city real estate turnover remained small,slowly recovery trend since October,and has substantially no backlash,priceStyleThe whole is also slowly,we think,House pricesDo not move,volume of short-term rebound is unlikely to have relatively substantially. Together,we still think it is bottom concussion market,adhere to the defensive stock,hold bibcock,the commercial company will outperform the industry index.Stock strategy: A stocks leading suggestion attention Vanke,commercial real estate investment; recommended Financial Street,Jinqiao.Combined adjustment: maintain your position 70% and the allocation of shares.Block review:Plate movements: period,in the real estate index fell 7.2%,weaker than the same period in the A stock market index fell 2 percentage points. The stock aspect,sales growth is lack of power,the policy is expected to come to nothing makes bibcock businessReal estate stocksThe decline in 6% ~ 9% of the total votes.The performance of Portfolio: the combination of net period fell 5.2%,beat the index by 2 percentage points. Since our late September recommended standard estate,regression faucet / business since,combined net worth fell 1.7%,better than the 2.8% decline over the same period the market as well as the A shares estate index 7.2% decline. Vanke period fell 7.3%,investment fell 6.1%,Financial Street – 9%,Jinqiao – 8.3%.The focus of discussions:Beijing tax prices,bittersweet: recently Beijing city issued tax price increase and the ordinary residential standards of opening policy,we consider 1) is a group of “hedge” policy,the good new premises transactions,bad housing stock,and just,and speculation,the overall effect of neutral; 2) the tax prices the promotion possibility exists 3); at the same time implies a first-tier cities to levy property tax “housing assessment” the condition is already mature 4) policy overall condition is complex,but the trend is the place to put the central keep. We believe that with the economy to go bad,policy will be earlier than expected,The real estate sectorValuation levels will rise,continue to pay attention to the recommendations of performance / sales,assets and liabilities of good bibcock company and commercial real estate company,A shares value Vanke,merchants,Financial Street; H CRL,COLI,LONGFOR and Franshion. For more details see our November 29,2011 report “tax prices,bittersweet”. CICC: real estate industry strategy two weekly (Twentieth period)

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In November we 24-25 was organized on 2012 real estate annual strategy conference,invite the bibcock company,estate + X,commercial real estate on behalf of company executives to the industry and the company of interpretation,by market concern.Abstract:Sales: the current wait-and-see sentiment was strong,but the leading sales continue to outperform.Because the lead relative to the whole market belong to the high turnover company,reasonable pricing,in a certain profit level to take as the main target,leading the company to sell much beyond the market.Inventory,to the situation: inventory will increase continuously,predict the 1 quarter of next year,inventory reaches a new high point; the first half of next year to the number of months in the record will be over.The follow-up disc and sales: the postponement of the opening of universal. Many would have appeared on the market OctoberPropertyNo opening. Reason is the enterprise can’t push,including Vanke,in October the actual disc is much smaller than the early numerical schemes.Credit: in September,the bank for the first timeHomeCredit arrangements made significantly tighten adjustment,the first payment demand higher interest rates,and increase substantially,but the credit deterioration,the market overall effect,and is not particularly large,because the average loans Shoufu only 15%. InvestmentData: investment is serious lag,the small developers haveYu DongSleep state. LandMarket: transaction decline,Liupai rise,future will be worse than the housing market. October Liupai rate started to rise,the future a secondary land market will continue for more difficult. The local government for developers to sell land will become strong,and two form difference.Industry: some developers believe that the long-term prospects of China’s real estate market basically no foam.Bubble needs two conditions,one is the purchasing power of overdraft,a future supply is elastic,there will be a bubble,but the two did not have the Chinese market. China housing purchasing power,there is no use lever extending the purchasing power of the phenomenon; supply will not increase substantially.Trend next year: part of the company that the future of real estate regulation has become the norm,regulation to last at least five or six months next year orTwo meetingsAfter regulation,but not long-lasting,future policy loosening is differentiated,for example,may bias to improve residential loosening; part of that whole industry will gradually return to the state that develops smoothly; part of that good long-term trend did not change,urbanization,enhance the purchasing power and other factors to support industry.Business strategy: traveling into the city,and to take advantage of,structural sex demand. Bibcock company insists on fast turnaround strategy based on the constant,will adjust product structure,increase the just and the first to change products to push into the city.We maintain Industry Holdings rating. Continue to 9 since the mid and late firm recommendation. Stock recommendations: (1) the high turnover will underestimate the value of bibcock holding winning:Poly Real Estate(600048,Shares),Real estate investment(000024,Shares),vanke,Branch Company(000656,Shares),The first shares(600376,Shares),Wing Shing Development(002146,Shares),The group(600383,Shares),Central South Building(000961,Shares),Universal Su Ning(000718,Shares). (2) the 4 stageHouse pricesThe decline in I stage,the proposed focus on the valuation of the security,honour and strong estate + X quality standard: oct,Beijing urban construction(600266,Shares),China Baoan(000009,Shares),The new lake Po(600208,Shares),China industry real estate(600240,Shares),City Transit vote(000540,Shares),Build a stake(600153,Shares). Guotai Junan: real estate industry investment strategy in 2012 meeting summary

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Recently,the Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban-rural development and localTaxBureau jointly issued the city enjoy preferential policies ordinary housing standards,at the same time,Beijing City Finance Bureau also issued “on the strengthening of the housing stock transactions of Beijing tax collection work notice”,improveThe second-hand houseThe minimum tax price. MarketInvestmentAre more concerned about,we undertook detailed analysis,comment below.Comment on:1) this is a group of “hedge” policy,the good new premises transactions,bad housing stock,and just,and speculation,the overall effect of neutral: the previous housing stock transaction tax,intermediary / buyers are available through the “Yin and yang contract” to avoid,and Beijing before execution of tax price,price was the highest in Donghua region door area,only 9621 yuan / square metre,estimating the purchase tax general total actual transactionHouse prices1% ~ 3%. We measured down,upregulation of tax price and the price was employed to assess the value,will aggravate the second-hand housing transaction costs,is expected to enhance the transaction cost 2% ~ 3%. At the same time,ordinary residential standards released,according to our calculations,for just the housing stock purchase tax preferences in the overall limit of 3% ~ 4%,for some improvement / just new home buyers (formerly classified as ordinary residential,is now the ordinary residential),there are 1.5% certain concessions,overall hedge the adjustment of tax price of negative affect,but not luxury products tax,investment / speculative buyers still suppressed,reflects the government regulation is not loose,has also has press ideas.2) tax price of up-regulated in the presence of the promotion possibility: since this year,Changsha,Beijing in the near future to adjust tax price,we think,this is against the contract of yin and Yang,perfect the tax regulatory consideration,at the same time,also increase the local government tax revenue,we first estimate the Beijing policy can give local government by tax of about 10000000000 yuan (if the transaction amount to 200000000000 yuan of above),in the yearLandTransfer income sharply lower,the local government has the power to increase the real estate tax,land value-added tax levy,does not exclude the housing stock tax prices across the country to promote the possibility of other city.3) at the same time implies a first-tier cities to levy property tax “housing assessment” the condition is already mature: we also notice,the Beijing for the authorized tax price will refer to the housing stock transaction price assessment value is determined,the valuation of real estate valuation techniques identified by mass,and according to the Beijing real estate market update,meant as a property tax (property) to promote the main obstacle,property assessment,mainly in the first-tier cities have matured,the futureReal estate taxLaunch is expected to replace the current severe administrative restriction means,the real estate industry will return to the market regulation of road.4) the policy surface overall condition is complex,but the trend is the place to put,the central keep up with: integrating recent local government regulation and control measures as well as the central speech,in the short term,we see a clear policy to loosen up,but in the long term,still need to promote the urbanization process to deal with the economic downturn and to give full play to the role of the market to promote the healthy development of the real estate market,we determine the current administrative policy in the future will change,relax the path is the first local government recycling policy,then the central follow-up to relax credit limit / restriction measures,point may be in the spring of next year around.Valuation and suggestion:Over the past two weeks,local governments,such as Chongqing,Beijing,Chengdu,appeared the policy tendency,we believe that with the economy to go bad,policy will be earlier than expected,The real estate sectorValuation levels will rise,continue to pay attention to the recommendations of performance / sales,assets and liabilities of good bibcock company and commercial real estate company,A shares value Vanke,merchants,Financial Street; H CRL,COLI,LONGFOR and Franshion. CICC: real estate business tax prices bittersweet

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PropertyAt a low price to attract property buyers,but the Shanghai property market overall is still in the doldrums. From a number of Real Estate Research Institute data shows,last week (November 21st – November 27th) the commodity residential area of only 97500 square metres,again fell below 100000 square meter mark,without even a single item transacted more than 100 sets. Insiders said,the distance from the end of only one month,sales situation downturn has several to be a foregone conclusion,is expected in December the market supply and transactions are to be low,the market hopelessness appeared apparent a favourable turn.Right from the property market and judged only provides data for display,as of November 27th,commercial housing in November were only 382100 square meters,a full month to over 450000 square meters,compared to the same period last year dropped 53.29%,the deal area. This data will be a record in the past 6 years earlier lows.From the week of deal area,the property market has a structural decline trend. Transaction data,is located in the Nanhui new plate “Vanke Qinglinjing” Residence housing 91 sets of transactions this week,a total of 9600 square meters,ranking the top of turnover. The week transactions fold to 12900 yuan / square meters. The project currently houses in source online quotes price 16500 yuan / square meters. At present,the purchase price to enjoy preferential 40000 yuan. This week the average turnover is only online quotation 22% off. The essence of valueStyleThe boost to the promotion. As of last weekend,has been on 948 sets of housing,the overall number to rate 63.6%.In addition,2009 new floor price of 32484 yuan / square meters of built in the palace was finally published,in the performance of the property market downturn,opened 4 sets of signing,both sets of total 50000000 yuan,equivalent to the average price of 121894 yuan / square meters,once again raised the new plate residential unit.”The end of the year turnover is depressed,had never seen before,individual property price fails to cause the entire market. At present the majority of just the real estate prices are relatively high,unable to attract just to the need for the main buyers into the market,and also leads to the low turnover of the main reasons.” Dooioo Property Research Director Lu Qilin said,the current property market is still in the depth of stage of the game,whether developers or property buyers,mostly still in wait-and-see.”Although the weekend to several projects have achieved good sign,next week turnover is expected to appear pick up certainly,but look from the trend,market hopelessness appeared apparent a favourable turn.” Housing letter analyst Xue Jianxiong said. He said on November,27 days before the city of Shanghai,a total of 761600 square meters of new money to launch,higher than the October 610000 square meters supply low. Since the middle of October started depreciate considerably proven market bottom,some funds tight developers have joined depreciating procession,to end funding low-cost plate,thus appear to increase supply situation. Over the same period of November,27 days before the turnover of 381200 square meters,has continued since May for 6 consecutive months of decline. But thanks to depreciate the project into the city,in November October,two months were more stable performance,the market to maintain the stagnant. Zhou Du volume basically maintained at 100000 square meters,at the end of the month rose slightly. However,the distance from the end of only one month,sales situation has several to be a foregone conclusion. In December is expected to supply and market transactions are to be low,the market hopelessness appeared apparent a favourable turn.Twenty-first Century real estate Shanghai region analyst the Yellow River Tao said,recently more and more outlying properties as “zero profit” into the city,the visible property market overall downward trend gradually obvious,buyer’s market is further established,developers of the project pricing tend to be realistic,projects at the market is becoming a trend.

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PropertyAt a low price to attract property buyers,but the Shanghai property market overall is still in the doldrums. From a number of Real Estate Research Institute data shows,last week (November 21st – November 27th) the commodity residential area of only 97500 square metres,again fell below 100000 square meter mark,without even a single item transacted more than 100 sets. Insiders said,the distance from the end of only one month,sales situation downturn has several to be a foregone conclusion,is expected in December the market supply and transactions are to be low,the market hopelessness appeared apparent a favourable turn.Right from the property market and judged only provides data for display,as of November 27th,commercial housing in November were only 382100 square meters,a full month to over 450000 square meters,compared to the same period last year dropped 53.29%,the deal area. This data will be a record in the past 6 years earlier lows.From the week of deal area,the property market has a structural decline trend. Transaction data,is located in the Nanhui new plate “Vanke Qinglinjing” Residence housing 91 sets of transactions this week,a total of 9600 square meters,ranking the top of turnover. The week transactions fold to 12900 yuan / square meters. The project currently houses in source online quotes price 16500 yuan / square meters. At present,the purchase price to enjoy preferential 40000 yuan. This week the average turnover is only online quotation 22% off. The essence of valueStyleThe boost to the promotion. As of last weekend,has been on 948 sets of housing,the overall number to rate 63.6%.In addition,2009 new floor price of 32484 yuan / square meters of built in the palace was finally published,in the performance of the property market downturn,opened 4 sets of signing,both sets of total 50000000 yuan,equivalent to the average price of 121894 yuan / square meters,once again raised the new plate residential unit.”The end of the year turnover is depressed,had never seen before,individual property price fails to cause the entire market. At present the majority of just the real estate prices are relatively high,unable to attract just to the need for the main buyers into the market,and also leads to the low turnover of the main reasons.” Dooioo Property Research Director Lu Qilin said,the current property market is still in the depth of stage of the game,whether developers or property buyers,mostly still in wait-and-see.”Although the weekend to several projects have achieved good sign,next week turnover is expected to appear pick up certainly,but look from the trend,market hopelessness appeared apparent a favourable turn.” Housing letter analyst Xue Jianxiong said. He said on November,27 days before the city of Shanghai,a total of 761600 square meters of new money to launch,higher than the October 610000 square meters supply low. Since the middle of October started depreciate considerably proven market bottom,some funds tight developers have joined depreciating procession,to end funding low-cost plate,thus appear to increase supply situation. Over the same period of November,27 days before the turnover of 381200 square meters,has continued since May for 6 consecutive months of decline. But thanks to depreciate the project into the city,in November October,two months were more stable performance,the market to maintain the stagnant. Zhou Du volume basically maintained at 100000 square meters,at the end of the month rose slightly. However,the distance from the end of only one month,sales situation has several to be a foregone conclusion. In December is expected to supply and market transactions are to be low,the market hopelessness appeared apparent a favourable turn.Twenty-first Century real estate Shanghai region analyst the Yellow River Tao said,recently more and more outlying properties as “zero profit” into the city,the visible property market overall downward trend gradually obvious,buyer’s market is further established,developers of the project pricing tend to be realistic,projects at the market is becoming a trend.

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Real estate stocksFunds from the outflow to inflow,capital is flowing into the 57000000. The inflow of funds into the top three stocks respectively: OCT A (19782700 yuan),Duolun shares(600696,Shares) (18098800 yuan),Poly Real Estate(600048,Shares) (15349200 yuan).(policy of data)

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Real estate stocksAt the same time than in the past week have increased 118.71%. The turnover ranked the top 3 stocks respectively:Poly Real Estate(600048,Shares) (7663100 shares),The group(600383,Shares) (6465800 shares),A (6419300 shares).(policy of data)

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Real estate plate afternoon performance better,as of 13: 48,Tibet City vote rose nearly 6%.Disk,Tibet city vote,Duolun shares(600696,SharesRise respectively 5.73%,5.31%),Chong Hing resources(600193,Shares),Guanghui company(600256,SharesRise respectively 4.51%,4.50%),Universal Su Ning(000718,Shares),China industry real estate(600240,Shares),up more than 3%.(“Securities Times” News Center)

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Reporter yesterday afternoon to visit the scene and found,in addition to a few have to change clothes shop,barber shop,most businesses have received training and shuttered.Yesterday at 3 pm,reporters came to the Jingan villa,found a floor commercial shops are locked steel doors,only a few change clothes shop,barber shop are still in operation.In a tea shop,the reporter saw,shop signs,beverage list have disappeared,only a small window was open,the owner sees the guest,handed a take-away drink list. Milk tea shop owner said: “it is to find a new site. At present there are many intermediary to contact me,Maoming Road,Weihai road and Huangpu District some shops,but also did not find a suitable berth.”Because of the Jingan villa undocumented shops facing ban,many intermediary Chouzhun business opportunities to promote the surrounding shops,but the shops are difficult to meet the expected. A catering shop owner said: “intermediary recommend shops such as Wujiang Road,just a dozen square meters of shops,the monthly rent to thirty thousand yuan; Maoming on 10 square meters of shops,rent of 18000 yuan,it is hard to bear.”Subsequently,the reporter in Jingan villa owner who contacted several intermediary. The intermediary,to Jingan villa moved out of the store,to recommend a berth is more concentrated in the Maoming Road,Weihai Road,Yuen Road,Nanjing West Road. “Yuyuan Road near the road has 20 square meters of shops,rent as long as 8000 yuan,but the flow is slightly almost,but also pay a transfer fee of twenty thousand yuan.” Intermediary small Shen referral said,”Jingan District now near the shops are some,but to find the appropriate size,can apply for a business license,if food brands,also have upper and lower drainage system,drainage system,a little bit difficult.”

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